IEA’s Molnar: New Market

Gergely Molnár, Gas Analyst, International Energy Agency
Keynote Address, 7th Budapest LNG Summit, May 7, 2026

The Middle East conflict has fundamentally disrupted the global gas market outlook. IEA Gas Analyst Gergely Molnár reported that global LNG supply grew a strong 10% (29 bcm) in 2025-26, with nearly half coming from a single plant in Louisiana, pushing TTF and JKM prices roughly 25% below prior-year levels through February. That relief is now being overwhelmed by geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz closure sent TTF up 70% in two days and has eliminated roughly 120 bcm of expected new LNG supply through 2030, about 15% of the anticipated LNG wave. USLNG growth will eventually offset those losses, but the effect will be delayed by at least two years, meaning tighter markets for longer. Meanwhile, Europe’s storage campaign is already in trouble: April injections ran 20% below last year’s pace, making 90% fill targets unlikely. “The European storage campaign will be more challenging and probably more expensive than expected.”

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