Ukraine’s Role in Russian Gas Transit and USLNG Impact (Atlantic Council)
Sergiy Makogon, Daniel Stein (May 07): Despite Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian gas continues to transit Ukraine to European buyers. However, transit volume has fallen significantly. Countries now dependent on Ukraine transit can easily source replacement gas, particularly LNG. Increases in US and Canadian LNG production in 2025-2026 alone would more than replace Russian gas currently being transited via Ukraine. Since 2023, the United States has emerged as the main LNG supplier to Europe, accounting for nearly half of total EU LNG imports in 2023.
The Ukrainian government may face political pressure from some EU member states to maintain gas transit, with or without an agreement. To counter this pressure, the United States should: (1) discourage its EU allies from continuing to import Russian gas via Ukraine and (2) urge Ukraine to resist this pressure. The future of Ukraine’s role in gas transit post-2024 is uncertain, with differing views within the Ukrainian government yet to be resolved. Link to Content