Enough Gas for Transition?

Energy Transition: Is There Enough Gas? (Thunder Said Energy)

Jan. 03: Global gas production needs to double to 800bcfd in our roadmap to net zero, to complement a vast ascent of wind/solar and a nuclear renaissance. But is there enough gas? Today’s model estimates what this kind of ramp-up might look like in reserves/production terms.

• The 30-year history is fascinating, as global gas production doubled in the 30-years from 1990-2019, with an average reserve replacement ratio of 180%. (i.e., reserves increased).
• The two to three-year history is more sobering. Perhaps for the first time ever, reserve replacement in global gas has fallen meaningfully below 100%, at 92% in the 3-years to 2021.
• Mathematically, we think global gas production can double again, as our model includes a 107% reserve replacement ratio and the RP-ratio halving to c25 years by 2050.
• But out in the real world it would require unleashing more shale (U.S. and international) and discovering another Mozambique every three to five years (i.e., large, frontier gas basins).
• We remain nervous that the wheels are not currently in motion to achieve this feat, resulting in protracted energy shortages throughout the 2020s and beyond…

Link to Thunder Said Energy Model