USLNG Price Impacts (None)

Debunking the Myth: The Impact of USLNG Exports on Domestic Natural Gas Prices
Dr. Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, TXOGA

Amid global energy shifts and the rise of the United States to become the world’s top natural gas exporter, a pivotal question arises: Do USLNG exports influence domestic natural gas prices?

A recent study I conducted for TXOGA (and LNG Allies) delves into this query against the backdrop of the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG export permit approvals, a move predicated on concerns over potential domestic price increases. This decision overlooks the dynamic effects that global market access has had on drilling productivity, as well as the integral role of USLNG exports in bolstering national and global energy security, especially against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions such as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Our findings, derived from a robust statistical analysis, reveal a nuanced reality. Despite the tripling of USLNG exports since 2019 and achieving new record highs, domestic natural gas prices have fallen to their lowest real levels in decades. This counterintuitive fact underscores a lack of sustained, significant impact of LNG exports on domestic pricing, challenging the administration’s rationale for pausing export permit approvals. Link to Content > Link to Dr. Foreman’s Study